tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: B6 969 at 16:40, 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 969 JetBlue Flight history → RIC 16:40 MCO 18:56 30% 16% 2.2% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 5h 12m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 49m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 7h 13m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:02 → JFK 08:22DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor 3h 05m New York JFK 11:27 → MCO 14:17DL 2775 7h 15m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:57 → LGA 07:21DL 5822 · flown by Republic 58m New York LGA 08:19 → MCO 10:58DL 1511 5h 01m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 05m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → MCO 12:00AA 1670 5h 30m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:15 → ORD 09:25UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 35m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 6h 48m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:07 → MCO 13:34DL 1562 5h 34m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08UA 3415 · flown by Republic 47m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 5h 18m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON