Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 604 at 06:25, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 604 American Flight history →	RIC 06:25	MIA 08:52	8%	3%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 12m	98%	91%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 41m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 07m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:57 → LGA 07:21DL 5822 · flown by Republic	3h 54m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 27m	100%	89%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620	8h 57m	100%	88%
American Details →	RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont	2h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 09:55 → MIA 12:59AA 1985	6h 33m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 27m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	7h 26m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON