Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5344 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RIC 06:44	MSP 08:44	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RIC 14:33	MSP 16:30	9%	4%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic	3h 50m Boston	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	8h 58m	99%	90%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805	5h 36m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:02 → JFK 08:23DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 48m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 55m	98%	88%
American Details →	RIC 06:17 → PHL 07:27AA 5815 · flown by Piedmont	1h 30m Philadelphia	PHL 08:57 → MSP 10:59AA 595	5h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 47m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 11m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON