Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4012 RNO 06:40 → DEN 09:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1534 RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4012 Southwest	RNO 06:40	DEN 09:56	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:47	3%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:21	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
WN 1511 Southwest	RNO 10:52	DEN 14:04	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2007 Southwest	RNO 13:40	DEN 16:54	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 5316 SkyWest	RNO 15:53	DEN 19:16	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:55	9%	3%	0.5%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON