Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1361 RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 324 RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1361 American Flight history →	RNO 05:22	DFW 10:41	4%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1260 American	RNO 07:17	DFW 12:37	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1911 American Flight history →	RNO 11:03	DFW 16:27	11%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 324 American Flight history →	RNO 14:17	DFW 19:46	13%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON