Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3368 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3368 RNO 06:00 → LAS 07:32 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4242 RNO 18:52 → LAS 20:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest	RNO 06:00	LAS 07:32	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 198 Southwest	RNO 07:41	LAS 09:08	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2057 Southwest	RNO 09:23	LAS 10:42	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1414 Southwest	RNO 10:18	LAS 11:37	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4811 Southwest	RNO 19:22	LAS 20:41	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4365 Southwest	RNO 17:25	LAS 18:43	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3369 Southwest	RNO 15:53	LAS 17:09	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4238 Southwest	RNO 16:29	LAS 17:47	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4818 Southwest	RNO 18:01	LAS 19:18	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1423 Southwest	RNO 14:24	LAS 15:45	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4242 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 18:52	LAS 20:28	13%	5%	1.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON