Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4106 RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 804 RNO 11:11 → LAX 12:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	5%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 19:02	LAX 20:47	6%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	7%	4%	0.6%	84%
OO 457 SkyWest	RNO 10:12	LAX 11:50	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2681 United	RNO 16:16	LAX 18:04	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 804 Southwest	RNO 11:11	LAX 12:35	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON