Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3373 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3373 RNO 06:20 → PHX 08:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1491 RNO 14:45 → PHX 16:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3373 Southwest	RNO 06:20	PHX 08:11	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1826 American	RNO 05:52	PHX 07:59	4%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 12:43	PHX 14:47	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 16:21	PHX 18:14	15%	3%	0.7%	68%
WN 1491 Southwest	RNO 14:45	PHX 16:34	15%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON