Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4410 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4410 RNO 07:00 → SAN 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3377 RNO 15:23 → SAN 16:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4410 Southwest	RNO 07:00	SAN 08:43	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3376 Southwest	RNO 13:13	SAN 14:46	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest	RNO 15:23	SAN 16:54	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 2234 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RNO 07:48	SAN 09:25	21%	0%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON