Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3137 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day OO 3137 RNO 06:13 → SEA 08:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 601 RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3137 SkyWest	RNO 06:13	SEA 08:16	13%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 599 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 21:50	SEA 23:37	18%	3%	0.6%	61%
AS 601 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 14:46	SEA 16:43	24%	4%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON