tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:37 am at Reno)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 10:33, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Los Angeles LAX 14:31 → SJC 15:59DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 20:48 → SJC 22:10DL 1420 6h 57m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 6h 59m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RNO 12:51 → DEN 16:10UA 1534 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → SJC 20:57UA 2745 8h 06m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:14 → SLC 19:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 21:01 → SJC 22:03DL 1272 4h 49m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 17:18 → SJC 18:13DL 1172 5h 09m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → RNO 13:07 → PHX 15:05AA 1437 1h 26m Phoenix PHX 16:31 → SJC 18:36AA 2094 5h 29m 93% 62%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 09:34 → SEA 11:39AS 2179 · flown by Horizon 2h 00m Seattle SEA 13:39 → SJC 15:45AS 521 6h 11m 92% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON