Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1485 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1485 ROC 07:13 → CLT 09:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2320 ROC 17:38 → CLT 19:27 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1485 American Flight history →	ROC 07:13	CLT 09:16	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2742 American	ROC 12:46	CLT 14:42	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	ROC 17:38	CLT 19:27	22%	3%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ROC 05:52 → LGA 07:12DL 5311 · flown by Endeavor	53m New York	LGA 08:05 → CLT 08:41DL 5068 · flown by Endeavor	2h 49m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON