Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5351 ROC 05:29 → DCA 06:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5457 ROC 17:18 → DCA 18:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5351 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 05:29	DCA 06:55	6%	5%	0.7%	93%
OH 5027 PSA	ROC 11:28	DCA 13:07	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5457 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 17:18	DCA 18:49	16%	8%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON