Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5318 ROC 05:23 → JFK 06:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5289 ROC 16:11 → JFK 17:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5318 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 05:23	JFK 06:40	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
B6 1285 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 07:06	JFK 08:26	7%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 5330 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 11:27	JFK 12:44	10%	2%	0.8%	81%
DL 5289 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 16:11	JFK 17:47	11%	3%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON