Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5311 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5311 ROC 05:52 → LGA 07:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5054 ROC 18:29 → LGA 19:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5311 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 05:52	LGA 07:12	8%	2%	0.7%	82%
9E 5364 Endeavor	ROC 12:23	LGA 13:43	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5298 Endeavor	ROC 12:29	LGA 13:47	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5054 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 18:29	LGA 19:52	23%	5%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON