Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4441 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4441 ROC 06:32 → ORD 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 19:23 → ORD 20:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4441 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:32	ORD 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
MQ 3827 Envoy	ROC 05:01	ORD 06:03	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:20	ORD 07:26	7%	2%	0.6%	75%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:29	ORD 11:30	9%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:19	ORD 12:17	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
OO 6316 SkyWest	ROC 20:15	ORD 21:09	13%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 19:23	ORD 20:20	21%	6%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON