Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5930 ROC 05:59 → PHL 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest PT 5789 ROC 16:52 → PHL 18:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5930 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ROC 05:59	PHL 07:26	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 6126 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ROC 10:54	PHL 12:28	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 5813 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ROC 07:34	PHL 08:56	9%	3%	0.8%	87%
PT 5789 Piedmont	ROC 16:52	PHL 18:16	11%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON