Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, F9 2715 at 14:40, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


F9 2715 Frontier Flight history →	RSW 14:40	CLE 17:25	16%	9%	2.3%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 08:26 → ORD 10:28UA 2347	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 12:44 → CLE 15:19UA 1878	6h 53m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	4h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	7h 17m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:49 → CLE 20:41DL 2150	7h 25m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → CLE 22:26DL 1339	6h 45m	98%	84%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:02 → CLE 14:48AA 2336	8h 47m	100%	83%
United Details →	RSW 13:54 → ORD 16:09UA 2472	4h 00m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → CLE 22:35UA 1156	8h 41m	99%	83%
United Details →	RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652	7h 45m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON