Today: WN 1827 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet today WN 1827 RSW 08:38 → CMH 11:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3325 RSW 18:48 → CMH 21:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1827 Southwest	RSW 08:38	CMH 11:08	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 760 Southwest	RSW 15:02	CMH 17:42	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3325 Southwest	RSW 18:48	CMH 21:17	24%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON