Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 11:19, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2916 American Flight history →	RSW 11:19	DCA 13:55	13%	5%	2.1%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 10:38 → BOS 13:39DL 2474	2h 06m Boston	BOS 15:45 → DCA 17:49DL 5689 · flown by Republic	7h 11m	98%	87%
United Details →	RSW 08:45 → ORD 11:00UA 2347	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	8h 27m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:13 → DCA 12:56DL 1961	6h 11m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	96%	85%
American Details →	RSW 06:00 → ORD 08:26AA 2613	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 09:36 → DCA 12:41AA 315	6h 41m	95%	84%
United Details →	RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	8h 42m	99%	84%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:49AA 2399	7h 48m	97%	84%
United Details →	RSW 14:12 → ORD 16:25UA 2472	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:55UA 2160	8h 43m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON