Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1281 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1281 RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2736 RSW 18:03 → DFW 20:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1281 American Flight history →	RSW 06:01	DFW 08:05	5%	2%	2.2%	93%
AA 2740 American Flight history →	RSW 14:21	DFW 16:20	20%	8%	2.3%	69%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	RSW 18:03	DFW 20:11	25%	8%	2.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON