Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2054 United Flight history →	RSW 11:59	IAD 14:30	6%	3%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	7h 16m	99%	90%
United Details →	RSW 08:26 → ORD 10:28UA 2347	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:13UA 1128	7h 47m	100%	89%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:16 → IAD 14:31AA 524	8h 30m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	6h 02m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	5h 58m	99%	87%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → EWR 11:38UA 2477	3h 22m Newark	EWR 15:00 → IAD 16:35UA 2301	7h 51m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON