Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: DL 379 at 11:11 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day


DL 379 Delta Flight history →	RSW 11:11	LGA 14:00	15%	3%	1.3%	76%
DL 2310 Delta Flight history →	RSW 19:30	LGA 22:34	27%	5%	2.3%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 05m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	5h 06m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	7h 47m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	9h 08m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 43m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 02m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:37 → BOS 13:41DL 2474	2h 19m Boston	BOS 16:00 → LGA 17:30DL 5726 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	8h 12m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON