Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 266 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 266 SAN 07:10 → AUS 12:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4944 SAN 15:04 → AUS 19:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 266 Southwest	SAN 07:10	AUS 12:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	15%	5%	0.7%	81%
OO 3489 SkyWest	SAN 08:01	AUS 13:02	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:11	AUS 19:12	18%	5%	0.7%	85%
OO 3464 SkyWest	SAN 10:42	AUS 15:43	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1787 Southwest	SAN 09:35	AUS 14:28	25%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3395 Southwest	SAN 17:56	AUS 22:42	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1144 Southwest	SAN 11:46	AUS 16:33	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4944 Southwest	SAN 15:04	AUS 19:57	26%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON