Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 571 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 571 SAN 22:00 → BOS 06:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 3706 SAN 15:47 → BOS 00:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 571 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:00	BOS 06:38	8%	2%	0.7%	85%
B6 2120 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:40	BOS 05:19	10%	3%	1.2%	83%
B6 220 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 13:06	BOS 21:51	15%	5%	0.9%	74%
AS 390 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:41	BOS 19:14	18%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 3706 Southwest	SAN 15:47	BOS 00:09	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 19:04 → SLC 22:08DL 1252	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:32 → BOS 06:05 +1DL 696	8h 01m	97%	88%
American Details →	SAN 07:05 → PHL 15:13AA 2093	1h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 16:18 → BOS 17:44AA 3073	7h 39m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702	7h 32m	86%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON