Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3406 at 22:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3406 SAN 22:40 → BWI 06:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4424 SAN 10:54 → BWI 18:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3406 Southwest	SAN 22:40	BWI 06:38	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3404 Southwest	SAN 07:17	BWI 15:12	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4424 Southwest	SAN 10:54	BWI 18:58	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON