Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2130 at 22:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2130 SAN 22:24 → CLT 06:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1785 SAN 13:08 → CLT 20:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2130 American	SAN 22:24	CLT 06:03	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1651 American Flight history →	SAN 06:50	CLT 14:49	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 1785 American	SAN 13:08	CLT 20:40	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:35AA 2013	6h 45m	76%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON