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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:37, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 3h 40m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 95% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 9h 48m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → CMH 22:40DL 1501 9h 04m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 19m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 36m Chicago ORD 15:23 → CMH 17:44AA 3542 · flown by Envoy 8h 29m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:40 → ATL 20:02DL 924 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → CMH 00:15 +1DL 1459 8h 35m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:26 → SEA 21:19AS 683 53m Seattle SEA 22:12 → CMH 05:40 +1AS 280 8h 14m 71% 56%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → PHL 14:41AA 2093 46m Philadelphia PHL 15:27 → CMH 17:12AA 2592 7h 57m 58% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON