Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1385 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1385 SAN 06:30 → DAL 11:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 323 SAN 15:00 → DAL 19:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1385 Southwest	SAN 06:30	DAL 11:30	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4838 Southwest	SAN 06:47	DAL 11:33	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3635 Southwest	SAN 09:30	DAL 14:30	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1526 Southwest	SAN 16:21	DAL 21:13	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1016 Southwest	SAN 11:19	DAL 16:04	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	SAN 13:44	DAL 18:34	24%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 323 Southwest	SAN 15:00	DAL 19:59	24%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON