Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 14 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:42	DCA 21:00	22%	5%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	9h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	10h 16m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 20m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030	9h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	9h 22m	100%	85%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 25m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	9h 01m	98%	85%
United Details →	SAN 07:58 → IAH 13:27UA 2760	3h 23m Houston	IAH 16:50 → DCA 21:05UA 235	10h 07m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON