Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3411 SAN 06:40 → DEN 09:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1435 SAN 13:46 → DEN 16:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3411 Southwest	SAN 06:40	DEN 09:58	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3412 Southwest	SAN 09:54	DEN 13:07	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	10%	3%	1.2%	86%
UA 2829 United	SAN 07:09	DEN 10:36	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	12%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 2793 United	SAN 10:59	DEN 14:43	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1423 Alaska	SAN 17:31	DEN 20:48	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	SAN 11:50	DEN 15:00	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1422 Alaska	SAN 08:35	DEN 11:47	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	16%	6%	0.6%	77%
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:50	DEN 20:19	16%	5%	1.2%	81%
WN 3414 Southwest	SAN 15:32	DEN 18:43	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 9421 Frontier	SAN 12:13	DEN 15:44	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:50	DEN 19:21	22%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 1435 Southwest	SAN 13:46	DEN 16:58	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON