Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 771 SAN 13:16 → DFW 17:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	6%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	9%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	13%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	15%	5%	1.0%	84%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:26	DFW 12:11	16%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	19%	6%	1.0%	78%
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SAN 15:11	DFW 20:18	22%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:50	DFW 16:50	22%	6%	1.0%	76%
AA 1770 American	SAN 13:45	DFW 18:38	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 771 Alaska	SAN 13:16	DFW 17:52	31%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON