tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4481 at 17:43, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4481 Southwest SAN 17:43 ELP 20:28 22% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681 8h 16m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → ELP 19:34AA 555 8h 44m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:12 → ELP 17:09AA 2097 8h 09m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 8h 03m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:26UA 1980 1h 32m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 51m 91% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:11 → DFW 20:18AA 3060 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:33 → ELP 22:20AA 1514 6h 09m 93% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 89% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON