Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4476 SAN 08:45 → FAT 10:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3388 SAN 14:30 → FAT 15:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4476 Southwest	SAN 08:45	FAT 10:07	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:07	FAT 10:27	11%	5%	0.8%	83%
OO 3021 SkyWest	SAN 18:43	FAT 20:02	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 847 SkyWest	SAN 22:10	FAT 23:18	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3419 Southwest	SAN 20:27	FAT 21:44	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 3388 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:30	FAT 15:41	15%	6%	0.8%	74%
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON