Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4515 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4515 SAN 06:30 → HOU 11:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1894 SAN 18:11 → HOU 23:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4515 Southwest	SAN 06:30	HOU 11:42	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3423 Southwest	SAN 08:46	HOU 13:58	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4505 Southwest	SAN 12:25	HOU 17:36	24%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3424 Southwest	SAN 12:33	HOU 17:33	24%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1894 Southwest	SAN 18:11	HOU 23:11	25%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON