Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2760 SAN 08:03 → IAH 13:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2025 SAN 16:43 → IAH 21:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2760 United Flight history →	SAN 08:03	IAH 13:39	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1980 United Flight history →	SAN 10:25	IAH 15:37	12%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2237 United Flight history →	SAN 11:58	IAH 17:25	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 618 United Flight history →	SAN 15:10	IAH 20:31	15%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 2025 United	SAN 16:43	IAH 21:55	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON