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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Philadelphia, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:05 → PHL 15:13AA 2093 3h 06m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 10h 40m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979 8h 20m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861 6h 55m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 9h 02m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:16 → SFO 07:57UA 2830 2h 02m San Francisco SFO 09:59 → IND 17:20UA 2274 8h 04m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:08 → ORD 19:05AA 2131 3h 22m Chicago ORD 22:27 → IND 00:51 +1AA 4740 · flown by Republic 8h 43m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 9h 28m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482 8h 51m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 47m Chicago ORD 17:39 → IND 19:56UA 3628 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 63% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON