Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	5h 00m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	2h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:21 → JAC 16:28DL 509	5h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	96%	86%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 38m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	5h 40m	95%	81%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	3h 04m Denver	DEN 19:10 → JAC 20:48UA 785	7h 15m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309	49m San Francisco	SFO 13:36 → JAC 17:01UA 1593	5h 00m	72%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON