Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 709 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 709 SAN 21:55 → JFK 06:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 709 Delta Flight history →	SAN 21:55	JFK 06:23	6%	2%	1.0%	87%
DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	8%	2%	0.9%	87%
AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	8%	2%	0.8%	89%
B6 1190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:30	JFK 05:04	11%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:05	JFK 22:04	19%	4%	0.8%	76%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 11:51	JFK 20:30	20%	3%	1.2%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 19:04 → SLC 22:08DL 1252	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:45 → JFK 06:06 +1DL 1909	8h 02m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Los Angeles	LAX 08:38 → JFK 16:57DL 934	7h 42m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → JFK 21:40DL 2378	8h 04m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON