Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 716 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 716 SAN 08:04 → LAS 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1326 SAN 11:31 → LAS 13:07 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 716 Southwest	SAN 08:04	LAS 09:22	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 452 Southwest	SAN 07:35	LAS 08:54	8%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 785 Southwest	SAN 10:30	LAS 11:49	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 3030 SkyWest	SAN 07:51	LAS 09:24	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 430 Southwest	SAN 15:43	LAS 17:02	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4440 Southwest	SAN 19:39	LAS 20:56	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	SAN 13:11	LAS 14:29	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest	SAN 13:01	LAS 14:18	17%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3426 Southwest	SAN 17:36	LAS 18:55	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1655 Southwest	SAN 14:19	LAS 15:38	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3052 SkyWest	SAN 15:11	LAS 16:47	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:37	LAS 17:06	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 1466 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 17:49	LAS 19:24	25%	9%	1.9%	67%
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 11:31	LAS 13:07	25%	8%	1.6%	57%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON