Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3743 SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3993 SAN 19:28 → LAX 20:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	5%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2667 United	SAN 06:18	LAX 07:18	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	9%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	11%	5%	0.8%	91%
UA 2175 United	SAN 14:27	LAX 15:26	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3993 SkyWest	SAN 19:28	LAX 20:33	11%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON