tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at San Diego); 2 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 15:03, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:03 → LAX 16:02DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Los Angeles LAX 18:25 → MCI 23:41DL 2243 6h 38m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:13 → DFW 20:20AA 3060 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:36 → MCI 23:22AA 1036 6h 09m 89% 66%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 1h 01m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 5h 18m 76% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 51m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993 5h 12m 58% 44%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:50 → PHX 18:19AA 1951 47m Phoenix PHX 19:06 → MCI 23:50AA 623 5h 00m 58% 41%
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 49m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → MCI 23:19DL 2088 6h 00m 48% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON