Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3904 at 09:33, 26%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3904 Southwest	SAN 09:33	MCO 17:06	26%	8%	1.8%	no record
AS 396 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:03	MCO 18:17	37%	8%	3.2%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 59m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	10h 13m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309	9h 10m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 19:00 → SEA 22:03DL 2613	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	9h 40m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367	3h 40m New York	JFK 19:59 → MCO 23:19DL 1740	12h 50m	99%	80%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 31m Denver	DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501	7h 54m	94%	79%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 20:16 → MCO 00:04 +1UA 617	10h 29m	96%	78%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	1h 46m Denver	DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259	8h 08m	93%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 13:08 → ORD 19:05AA 2131	57m Chicago	ORD 20:02 → MCO 23:43AA 3176	7h 35m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON