Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 1802 American	SAN 22:35	MIA 06:18	12%	2%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 39m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367	3h 36m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	13h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 47m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811	8h 52m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	8h 23m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	7h 40m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 37m	90%	78%
American Details →	SAN 07:05 → PHL 15:13AA 2093	1h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306	9h 22m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON