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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:29 → MKE 16:31DL 1206 8h 16m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 6h 49m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 02m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 7h 47m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 19:41 → MKE 20:41DL 2388 8h 05m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 28m Houston IAH 19:53 → MKE 22:36UA 4774 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540 52m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 7h 38m 90% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 18:24 → MKE 19:33AA 1072 10h 43m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → MKE 20:56UA 4711 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 53m Chicago ORD 17:45 → MKE 18:48UA 5555 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 74% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON