Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3005 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 22:26	MRY 23:58	11%	3%	2.3%	76%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:53	MRY 14:28	16%	6%	1.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 59m San Francisco	SFO 17:18 → MRY 18:32UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	95%	81%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	3h 21m Denver	DEN 19:27 → MRY 21:16UA 1822	8h 43m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:46 → SEA 14:33AS 1368	49m Seattle	SEA 15:22 → MRY 17:43AS 2290 · flown by Horizon	5h 57m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON