Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2134 SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2191 SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2134 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:20	MSP 12:04	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:48	MSP 17:40	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2191 Delta Flight history →	SAN 15:19	MSP 20:58	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON