Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1422 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1422 SAN 07:25 → OAK 08:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3104 SAN 16:32 → OAK 18:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1422 Southwest	SAN 07:25	OAK 08:59	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3184 Southwest	SAN 08:32	OAK 10:07	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2161 Southwest	SAN 09:41	OAK 11:13	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4126 Southwest	SAN 22:21	OAK 23:46	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3108 SkyWest	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:25	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1427 Southwest	SAN 11:35	OAK 13:09	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2274 Southwest	SAN 15:01	OAK 16:35	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1979 Southwest	SAN 12:50	OAK 14:24	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 420 Southwest	SAN 19:13	OAK 20:46	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3437 Southwest	SAN 17:54	OAK 19:27	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	SAN 12:50	OAK 14:34	15%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3104 SkyWest	SAN 16:32	OAK 18:03	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON