Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 518 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 518 SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2131 SAN 13:08 → ORD 19:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	6%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 2065 American Flight history →	SAN 22:36	ORD 04:40	6%	2%	1.2%	85%
UA 540 United	SAN 22:29	ORD 04:22	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1016 United	SAN 06:49	ORD 12:58	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1696 American	SAN 08:07	ORD 14:17	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 2054 American	SAN 07:36	ORD 13:36	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	SAN 10:04	ORD 16:10	18%	5%	0.9%	82%
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	19%	3%	0.8%	75%
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:01	ORD 20:03	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	25%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 2131 American Flight history →	SAN 13:08	ORD 19:05	27%	6%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON