Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1212 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1212 SAN 06:26 → PHX 07:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3034 SAN 13:07 → PHX 14:46 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1212 American	SAN 06:26	PHX 07:53	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3441 Southwest	SAN 09:42	PHX 11:00	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1083 Southwest	SAN 08:24	PHX 09:39	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3327 American	SAN 10:26	PHX 11:52	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3445 Southwest	SAN 11:13	PHX 12:27	18%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1707 Alaska	SAN 20:56	PHX 22:11	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 428 Southwest	SAN 12:22	PHX 13:39	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3035 SkyWest	SAN 17:42	PHX 19:26	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 3124 American	SAN 13:15	PHX 14:34	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1140 Southwest	SAN 14:26	PHX 15:43	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3444 Southwest	SAN 19:57	PHX 21:14	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4453 Southwest	SAN 15:22	PHX 16:37	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3033 SkyWest	SAN 10:24	PHX 12:04	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 3443 Southwest	SAN 19:09	PHX 20:23	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:06	PHX 17:36	25%	6%	0.7%	74%
F9 2084 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 19:00	PHX 20:34	26%	10%	0.9%	76%
OO 3034 SkyWest	SAN 13:07	PHX 14:46	27%	7%	1.2%	no record
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON